How To Predict The Wind

For those with flexible schedules this has been a great season so far for Kiteboarding. So what is the outlook for the second half? Well, Kiteboarder’s and fellow sailors; it looks good. Great news for us but not so much for those looking for calm days on the boat (which can be equally as fun). There is no possible way to truly predict what will happen wind wise over the next few months. However, based on the patterns thus far. We may have even more wind coming this winter.

As we have discussed in past articles, our wind is mainly driven by cold fronts and low pressure systems. Currently, there are many active low pressure systems and fronts that have been approaching from both the west coast and the north east. As we get deeper into winter. The temperature gradients will only grow stronger, creating more powerful cold fronts. 

So how can you plan your days to maximize enjoyment? Often, you can look at the weather map and start to see the systems long before the wind forecast sites start to predict with any accuracy. I can often see wind potential 10 days out. That said; nor you or the experts will be able to predict wind speeds that far out. However, you can give yourself an idea of what’s coming and judge the potential of good wind.

It will take lots of practice and along with a mental or physical storm journal to really learn the patterns. That said, to get started, look at the “frontal boundary map” on your favorite forecasting site. Look for cold fronts mainly in the Great Lakes to New England region. Next look at the gradient between the temperature in front of the cold front, behind he cold front and the current temp here at home. The stronger the gradient (larger the difference in temperature) the stronger the wind is likely to be. 

There are so many more factors than this but you can really get an idea of what’s coming this way. With a combination of local forecast and your growing knowledge, you can often second guess the computer generated wind models and get an idea of what to expect long ahead of time.